Fantasy Hockey Playoff ONE: Rapture Edition

WRITTEN BY CHRIS WASSEL | 21 MAY 2011

No we are still here, so time to talk some hockey.  One can never trust those silly “end of the world” dodos.  This will be a short edition today as the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning play at 1:30pm ET.  Gee I wonder why.  Is the Preaknesstoday?  Uh oh.  Well we all better pray there is not any Overtime so there is no repeat of a Kentucky Derby pre-empted game. Remember Buffalo fans?

Well before we get into today’s game, I am thinking we need to look back at last night’s game in typical double time before the end of the….oh wait.

LOOKING BACK:

So last night’s San Jose-Vancouver game felt like something out of a “Hitchcock Novel”.  It had a little of everything.  There was the psycho on a mission, plot twists, and tons of chances on both sides.  It even gave you the feeling there was going to be a blowout and then just like that, there was not.

Patrick Marleau clearly was ON his game last night as he was our Fantasy POTNwith two goals, one assist, and 7 shots on goal.  We thought he was going to do well but not that well. Clearly we miscalculated on Joe Pavelski‘s breakout some.  When doing predictions off sims, that will occur sometimes where we are just off.  Actually last night would have likely been on the money if not for the Jamie McGinn major on Aaron Rome.  It looked like it was kind of called based on injury more than intent but it is what it is.  The call will obviously be made to McGinn to see if he gets suspended.

However, at 4-1 San Jose, that call gave Vancouver life as they tallied twice on the subsequent man advantage to make it a game.  After that Antti Niemi held down the fort enough in a game that showed us one big thing for fantasy owners.  We have said this about Roberto Luongo for awhile but thanks to The Goalie Guild, it was broadcast in clear Twitter stereo.  Every goal beat Luongo because he was deep and on his heels.  Just watch all four of them, especially the last one, as he looks like he went timber into a forest of trees.

Clearly San Jose, aside from the late penalty kill woes, played a solid 40 at least.  That was just enough.  Doug Murray played much better as opposed to Game 2 and Dan Boyle was more forceful as those were both keys to a long series.  Just imagine if both teams played a 60 minute effort, ah that never happens but for fantasy purposes, it would be something special.  One thing is clear.  Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are both having a very nice series so far and oh Thornton had 3 assists last night.

Speaking of Boston…..here is looking ahead to today…….

SCHEDULE TIME:

SATURDAY, MAY 21, 2011

Teams Notes
Boston at Tampa Bay 1:30 PM | Gameday

Now Game 3 was a bit close to the vest but for some reason Game 4 may just be a hybrid of Game 1 and Game 3.  Why?  Just call it a hunch that Tampa got way too conservative at times which played right into Boston’s hands.  Sure Tampa had chances but when Tim Thomas gets on a roll, he is going to stop just about everything and sometimes everything.  He is just one of those goalies honestly.

Tampa has to draw more penalties to make it less of a 5 on 5 game as well.  It is not that Tampa cannot play with Boston necessarily 5 on 5 but Boston can wear Tampa down better that way. That would impact fantasy numbers from Tampa obviously.  Also the Bolts have to win more faceoffs.  Just the fact that Patrice Bergeron won 18 of 28 tells you that Boston had the edge in puck possession after looking at the overall numbers.  By the way, overall Boston won 37 of 65 faceoffs (57%) and had the puck about 55% of the time.  Please bear with us as we are still trying to make the little pp into a viable stat of sorts.

Tampa has to create space, lanes, and traffic to score goals on Boston while Boston has figured out to be very patient on Dwayne Roloson and then attack.  SeeDavid Krejci in Game 3 as an example.  The fact that this is an afternoon game may help Tampa some as they are a bit faster as far as team speed.  Boston is 5-1 on the road in this postseason however.

Does anyone know how this is going to turn out?  Well thanks to NHL11, we hopefully have an idea on whether Boston will go up three game to one or if Tampa will tie the series.  Also do check out the TSN gameday as well.  Now here are our fantasy projections as we ran a total of four sims for today’s game four between Tampa and Boston.

SATURDAY PROJECTIONS:

  • Dwayne Roloson (TB) — 1 GA on 30 shots
  • Marty St. Louis (TB) — 2 goals, 5 SOG
  • Vincent Lecavalier (TB) — 2 assists, 4 SOG
  • Tim Thomas (TB) — 2 GA on 34 shots
  • Nathan Horton (BOS) — 1 goal, 4 SOG
  • Zdeno Chara (BOS) — 1 assist, 4 SOG, 6 hits

Yes it was a tough one to gauge.  We will be honest here.  Three of the four sims had Roloson with a shutout this afternoon and one had Tampa winning 4-0 in a blowout.  There was also one that had Tampa winning 1-0 with Boston outshooting Tampa badly.  That is why the numbers appear so balanced.  It is because we take an average.  However we do take into account of irregularities from the sims as well.  Apparently the under is poised to hit for a second time.

There was one sim that called for a 4-3 score and there is a slight chance that this one could really happen.  Tampa is going to come out fast and if Boston gets suckered in, the possibility increases so keep an eye on it.  In that game, Tyler Seguin had a multi point effort and the shot totals were 40-37 Tampa.  Hey you never know and yes Boston won that one.  That was the only one out of the four they did.  Go figure.

So good luck fantasy poolies and hockey fans out there.  Enjoy your afternoon hockey and get ready for the….oh wait….nevermind.

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Posted on May 23, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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